This threat, though understandable, is ultimately both immature and foolish. Approximately 20% of the world's oil supply (and more than a third of Iran's oil exports) passes through these straits; Iran's threatening to blockade them is tantamount to a child saying that if he can't play with his favorite toy, nobody can, and then destroying it in a fit of jealousy. Such petulance on the part of nation-states, though disconcerting, is nevertheless likely perhaps to the point of inevitability in the face of such dramatic pressure both internally and externally.
Within Iran's own borders, President Ahmadinejad faces growing dissent among the youth and the educated, and has fought with the powerful Ayatollah Khamenei, spiritual leader and head of state in Iran, over opening up to the West. The Arab Spring uprisings of the last year have only served to underscore this conflict. Cast in this light, the recent show of force seems more like the aggression a wounded animal might display when cornered. With few other options, it may be that President Ahmadinejad seeks a distraction for his people, and how better to do that than to provoke a confrontation with the United States? Even if he backs down, people are already talking, and it could make the regime appear stronger than it truly is; after all, if a leader is willing to challenge the United States militarily, he must be incredibly confident, or incredibly foolish, and nobody wants to believe their own (elected) leaders are fools.
Still, with the recent rescue of Iranian fishermen off the coast of Somalia by the USS Kidd, Iran is losing whatever international good will it may have had, and the louder it screams that the straits will be closed if sanctions are leveled, the more its leadership resembles a pack of imprudent children. If the regime was unaware that the trawler had been taken by pirates (a reasonable question, since the radios were in working order when it was retaken), it is rather sad for them to continue insisting the world take them seriously-- this is not a third-world state with no navy whatsoever to defend itself; this is a well-armed nation with a professional military unable to secure nearby ocean routes against pirates. If the Iranian leaders were aware the trawler had been taken, yet unwilling to mount a rescue, that raises enormous questions about how much its people truly matter, and indeed exactly what kind of leaders they are. It is my opinion that any leader who does not care about the people's security is no kind of leader at all, and should be replaced as soon as possible. Even allowing that the regime was unaware of the attack on its people, the recent saber-rattling Iran has engaged in serves as a greater indication than ever of the leaderships' lack of real direction. Shows of force have long been a part of statecraft, but Iran's insistence on continuing its "civilian" nuclear program (the inspection of which they refuse to allow, and which various intelligence services state is absolutely geared towards producing bomb-grade material) is further undermining its regime. Economic sanctions against Iran have been passed and more are likely, all because it refuses to give up the program or even allow outsiders in to prove peaceful intent. Since the closure of the Strait of Hormuz cannot end well for any involved parties, and Iran is quickly losing the support of Russia and China-- the two UN Security Council members who have been friendliest in the past-- the wisest choice for Iran's leadership would be to back down from the Strait and open channels with the west (preferably to include permitting UN inspection of the nuclear program), while at least ostensibly giving an open ear to the more moderate voices within. Sadly, such moderation and wisdom seems ever more unlikely; I can only hope for the sake of the Persian people that there is a change to cooler, more sensible heads in Iranian leadership, and soon.


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